Modelling the phenology of the grapevine leafhopper Erasmoneura vulnerata

Background: Erasmoneura vulnerata (Fitch) (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) is an invasive Nearctic leafhopper that has become a pest of economic relevance in European vineyards. Despite its growing impact, published monitoring data remain scarce, and there is still a lack of tools to support decision-making in the management of the pest. This study presents the first stage-structured model describing its phenology and incorporating non-linear temperature-dependent development. Results: The model was calibrated and validated leveraging field data collected in northern Italy during a continuous monitoring campaign conducted between March 2024 and July 2025, together with published monitoring data. Model parameters were estimated through an iterative optimization procedure that minimized the error between the simulated and observed population phenological progression of the pest during the calibration phase. Simulations showed a good fit between observed and simulated phenology across years and sites, with minor deviations possibly reflecting differences between local field conditions and the gridded temperature data used as input, as well as other sources of phenological variability not explicitly represented in the model. Conclusions: The proposed model provides a faithful and biologically grounded representation of E. vulnerata phenology under varying environmental conditions, offering a practical tool to assist decision-making in the monitoring and control of the pest. © 2026 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.