Climate change is acknowledged to directly affect not only the environment, economy, and society but also the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, thereby impacting public health. The recent experiences with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and Monkeypox have highlighted the complex and interconnected nature of infectious diseases, which are strongly linked to various determinants of health. Considering these challenges, adopting a new vision such as the trans-disciplinary approach appears to be imperative. This paper proposes a new theory about viruses' spread, based on a biological model, accounting for the optimisation of energy and material resources for organisms' survival and reproduction in the environment. The approach applies Kleiber's law scaling theory, originally developed in biology, to model community dynamics in cities. A simple equation can be used to model pathogen spread without accounting for each species' physiology by leveraging the superlinear scaling of variables with population size. This general theory offers several advantages, including the ability to explain the rapid and surprising spread of both SARS-CoV-2 and Monkeypox. The proposed model shows similarities in the spreading processes of both viruses, based on the resulting scaling factors, and opens new avenues for research. By fostering cooperation and integrating knowledge from different disciplines to effectively tackle the multifaceted dimensions of disease outbreaks, we can work towards preventing future health emergencies.
Comparing the spreading characteristics of monkeypox (MPX) and COVID-19: Insights from a quantitative model
Depero L. E.;Bontempi E.
2023-01-01
Abstract
Climate change is acknowledged to directly affect not only the environment, economy, and society but also the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, thereby impacting public health. The recent experiences with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and Monkeypox have highlighted the complex and interconnected nature of infectious diseases, which are strongly linked to various determinants of health. Considering these challenges, adopting a new vision such as the trans-disciplinary approach appears to be imperative. This paper proposes a new theory about viruses' spread, based on a biological model, accounting for the optimisation of energy and material resources for organisms' survival and reproduction in the environment. The approach applies Kleiber's law scaling theory, originally developed in biology, to model community dynamics in cities. A simple equation can be used to model pathogen spread without accounting for each species' physiology by leveraging the superlinear scaling of variables with population size. This general theory offers several advantages, including the ability to explain the rapid and surprising spread of both SARS-CoV-2 and Monkeypox. The proposed model shows similarities in the spreading processes of both viruses, based on the resulting scaling factors, and opens new avenues for research. By fostering cooperation and integrating knowledge from different disciplines to effectively tackle the multifaceted dimensions of disease outbreaks, we can work towards preventing future health emergencies.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
