Prediction of mortality and heart failure hospitalisations in patients undergoing M-TEER: external validation of the COAPT risk score

Background: A risk score was recently derived from the Cardiovascular Outcomes Assessment of the MitraClip Percutaneous Therapy for Heart Failure Patients with Functional Mitral Regurgitation (COAPT) Trial. However, external validation of this score is still lacking. Aims: We aimed to validate the COAPT risk score in a large multicentre population undergoing mitral transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (M-TEER) for secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR). Methods: The Italian Society of Interventional Cardiology (GIse) Registry of Transcatheter Treatment of Mitral Valve RegurgitaTiOn (GIOTTO) population was stratified according to COAPT score quartiles. The performance of the COAPT score for 2-year all-cause death or heart failure (HF) hospitalisation was evaluated in the overall population and in patients with or without a COAPT-like profile. Results: Among the 1,659 patients included in the GIOTTO registry, 934 had SMR and complete data for a COAPT risk score calculation. Incidence of 2-year all-cause death or HF hospitalisation progressively increased through the COAPT score quartiles in the overall population (26.4% vs 44.5% vs 49.4% vs 59.7%; log-rank p<0.001) and COAPT-like patients (24.7% vs 32.4% vs 52.3% vs. 53.4%; log-rank p=0.004), but not in those with a non-COAPT-like profile. The COAPT risk score had poor discrimination and good calibration in the overall population, moderate discrimination and good calibration in COAPT-like patients and very poor discrimination and poor calibration in non-COAPT-like patients. Conclusions: The COAPT risk score has a poor performance in the prognostic stratification of real-world patients undergoing M-TEER. However, after application to patients with a COAPT-like profile, moderate discrimination and good calibration were observed.