Analysis of the tendency of transition between segments of green consumer behavior with a Markov chain approach

Purpose This study aims to determine the number of segments of green consumer behavior on toiletries products, and the tendency of transition between clusters is estimated. This study also provides recommendations based on the results. Design/methodology/approach This study used primary data collected through an online and offline questionnaire. The questionnaire was intended to identify the socio-demographic characteristics, green consumer behavior state according to the environment as well as the willingness of the respondents to purchase various toiletries products (current, less green, and greener). Prior to segmenting green consumer behavior, scale purification using confirmatory factor analysis was performed to ensure the indicators used were valid. The k-means clustering algorithm was used for the segmentation, while discriminant analysis was used to validate the segmentation result. The Markov chain approach was performed to estimate the tendency of the transition between constructed segments, where the logistic regression model was applied to predict the individual transition probability. Findings The clustering algorithm resulted in three segments: light green, green and dark green. The light green segment has the lowest attitude toward the environmental criteria while the members of the dark green segment have the highest attitude among the other segments. The logistic regression indicated that the tendency of individuals to stay in the current segment or move to the adjacent segment was influenced by socio-demographic factors. The one-step transition probability matrix revealed that the tendency of a particular segment to move to the greener segment was greater than to stay or even move to the less green segment. The Markov chain approach then showed that the steady-state condition will emerge after 18 steps. Research limitations/implications This study was limited geographically and by the criteria used for segmenting the green consumer behavior; therefore, it is recommended that this study be replicated on a greater scale with more criteria. A wider geographic area could be considered, including a national study, and more criteria, such as social influences, could be considered. This study does not focus on specific toiletries products. Selecting more specific toiletries products could be considered to provide a more reliable response from the respondents. Moreover, factors around the willingness to pay for green products were not investigated in greater detail although these factors might become indicators that can distinguish between two or more segments. Practical implications This study empirically supports the theory that consumer environmentally friendly behavior can be used to appropriately categorize consumers into several segments, and thereby guide the development of a more differentiated policy approach for business and government. Social implications Green consumer behavior may help save the environment and it will be beneficial in reducing environmental damage. Originality/value The study extends the existing literature related to green consumer behavior by segmenting the green consumer behavior based on the environmental criteria and applying the Markov chain approach to estimate the tendency of transition between segments.