Tuberculosis trend among native and foreign-born people over a 17 year period (2004–2020) in a large province in Northern Italy

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence should decline by 20% in the Europe in 2015–2020, in line with End-TB milestones. We retrospectively evaluated TB notifications in the province of Brescia from 2004 to 2020. Cases were classified per patient origin and entitlement to Health Assistance for foreign born people: Italians (ITA), Foreigners permanently entitled (PEF) or Temporarily Entitled (TEF) to Health Regional Assistance. Poisson regression analysis was performed to assess associations between incidence and age, sex, continent of origin and year of notification. Overall 2279 TB cases were notified: 1290 (56.6%) in PEF, 700 (30.7%) in ITA and 289 (12.7%) in TEF. Notifications declined from 15.2/100,000 in 2004 to 6.9/100,000 in 2020 (54.6% reduction, temporary increase in 2013–2018 for TEF). Age (Incidence Risk Ratio, IRR, 1.02, 1.019–1.024 95%CI), sex (IRR 1.22, 1.12–1.34 95%CI), and continent of origin were positively associated with notifications (IRR 34.8, 30.8–39.2 95%CI for Asiatic, and IRR 20.6, 18.1–23.4 95%CI for African origin), p < 0.001. Notification decline was sharper in 2020, especially among TEF. End-TB milestone for 2020 was reached, but foreigners continue to represent a high risk group for the disease. Discontinuation of services due to the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a sharp decrease in TB notification in 2020.