Low Emission Road Transport Scenarios: An Integrated Assessment of Energy Demand, Air Quality, GHG Emissions, and Costs

This article proposes an integrated assessment methodology aimed at supporting decision-makers in design energy production scenarios to power a low emissions traffic fleet. The Multidimensional Air Quality (MAQ) system is used to define and solve a decision problem that selects a set of energy production scenarios minimizing costs, impacts on air quality, and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. This study focuses on the road transport sector, that is responsible for 25% of European GHGs emissions and 39% of NOₓ emission, a precursor of both NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations. The electrification of the light vehicle fleet and the use of biomethane to power heavy vehicles are analyzed, estimating the electricity demand increase, exploring different energy production mixes, and assessing the impacts on air quality, costs, and GHGs according to the fuels/sources used to satisfy the energy demand. A case study over Lombardy region, in Northern Italy, is proposed.