End-of-life automotive lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in Brazil: Prediction of flows and revenues by 2030

The fleet of electric vehicles has increased worldwide, pushed by the necessity of building a low-carbon economy. In Brazil, the number of new electric cars registered per year is also increasing, especially after the promulgation of the Program Route 2030. Collection rates and management criteria for end-of-life lithium-ion batteries (EOL LIBs) in the country are still not defined. Therefore, in this paper, we aimed to assess how big the market of electric cars (EC) will be in Brazil in 2030 and to investigate how different management patterns can affect the flows of electrodes active materials in the country. Simulations were conducted using Matlab, considering three different scenarios of penetration of EC in the total fleet of cars in 2030: 1%, 4% and 10%, while three management strategies were analyzed for the year of 2030 using Material Flow Analysis. According to the model, the number of new electric cars entering the Brazilian market in 2030 can surpass 1,800,000 units, resulting in a demand of Li, Co, Ni, Mn and graphite of up to 8,700, 15,000, 46,000, 15,000 and 92,000 tonnes, respectively. The number of EOL LIBs in the same year may overcome 340 thousand. The amount of material available for recycling depends on the management strategy adopted. In any case, revenues from recycling LIBs electrode active materials result mainly from Co and Ni recovery (88–93%). In view of increasing circularity of materials and expected technological development, the adoption of repurposing and remanufacturing is recommended.