Forecasting the steel product prices with the arima model

The following paper describes the results of the forecast activity applied on steel prices time series, the method used in this analysis is a rolling window ARIMA regression. The forecast activity is built on prices time series that have been collected by anonymous weekly surveys sent to a sample of steel Italian operators. This pricing collection activity officially started in 2012 thanks to a tight cooperation between DMS stat Lab and Siderweb. After a short introduction, the statistical approach used for the forecast is deeply described and the time series of the four steel product prices considered in this analysis are introduced; then, the result of the forecasting exercise is presented together with final conclusion in the end of this paper.