This study presents a general MonteCarlo-based methodology for the validation of chemical transport model (CTM) concentration re-analyzed fields over a certain domain. A set of re-analyses is evaluated by applying the observation uncertainty (U) approach (Thunis et al. Atmos Environ 59: 476-482 2012b), developed in the frame of Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe (FAIRMODE; http://fairmode.ew.eea.europa.eu/). Modeled results from the chemical transport model (Transport and Chemical Aerosol Model (TCAM)) (Carnevale et al. Sci Total Environ 390: 166-176 2008) for year 2005 are used as background values. The model simulation domain covers the Po Valley with a 6x6 km(2) resolution. Measured data for both assimilation and evaluation are provided by approximately 50 monitoring stations distributed across the Po Valley. The main statistical indicators (i.e., bias, root mean square error, correlation coefficient, standard deviation) as well as different types of diagrams (scatter plots and target plots) have been produced and visualized with the Delta evaluation tool V3.6. The target criteria are fulfilled by 97 % of the sites for the re-analyzed fields and by 61 % for the modeled values, showing how the application of the assimilation technique improves TCAM raw fields. The model underprediction of PM10 concentration (normalizedmean bias (NMB) up to -70 %) is reduced at almost all sites in the re-analysis (NMB in the range -20-+20 %,). The correlation coefficient R is higher for the re-analyzed fields (0.7-1) compared to the raw ones (0.2-0.8).
A methodology for the evaluation of re-analyzed PM10 concentration fields: a case study over the PO Valley
CARNEVALE, Claudio;FINZI, Giovanna;PEDERZOLI, Anna;PISONI, Enrico;TURRINI, Enrico;VOLTA, Marialuisa
2015-01-01
Abstract
This study presents a general MonteCarlo-based methodology for the validation of chemical transport model (CTM) concentration re-analyzed fields over a certain domain. A set of re-analyses is evaluated by applying the observation uncertainty (U) approach (Thunis et al. Atmos Environ 59: 476-482 2012b), developed in the frame of Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe (FAIRMODE; http://fairmode.ew.eea.europa.eu/). Modeled results from the chemical transport model (Transport and Chemical Aerosol Model (TCAM)) (Carnevale et al. Sci Total Environ 390: 166-176 2008) for year 2005 are used as background values. The model simulation domain covers the Po Valley with a 6x6 km(2) resolution. Measured data for both assimilation and evaluation are provided by approximately 50 monitoring stations distributed across the Po Valley. The main statistical indicators (i.e., bias, root mean square error, correlation coefficient, standard deviation) as well as different types of diagrams (scatter plots and target plots) have been produced and visualized with the Delta evaluation tool V3.6. The target criteria are fulfilled by 97 % of the sites for the re-analyzed fields and by 61 % for the modeled values, showing how the application of the assimilation technique improves TCAM raw fields. The model underprediction of PM10 concentration (normalizedmean bias (NMB) up to -70 %) is reduced at almost all sites in the re-analysis (NMB in the range -20-+20 %,). The correlation coefficient R is higher for the re-analyzed fields (0.7-1) compared to the raw ones (0.2-0.8).I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
