The paper presents the results of an analysis concerning the effectiveness of a criterion proposed by the writers to identify the most suitable probability distribution to model the historical series of annual maxima of peak flood discharges, with special reference to high return periods. This criterion is based on the analysis of a large amount of data referring to peak flows recorded in about 12000 gauging stations located in different geographical areas of the earth. The analysis shows that the usual goodness of fit tests are in agreement with the proposed method for return periods comparable with the lengths of the historical series but do not provide reliable information for the higher return periods that are usually involved in flood protection problems. On the other hand, the application of the proposed procedure to the probability distributions that are currently used in flood frequency analysis provides useful information to select the most suitable ones for the formulation of regional models aimed at the estimation of peak discharges corresponding to high return periods (>100 years).
Un criterio a base regionale per l'analisi dei modelli probabilistici finalizzati alla stima delle portate al colmo di elevato tempo di ritorno
TOMIROTTI, Massimo;
2014-01-01
Abstract
The paper presents the results of an analysis concerning the effectiveness of a criterion proposed by the writers to identify the most suitable probability distribution to model the historical series of annual maxima of peak flood discharges, with special reference to high return periods. This criterion is based on the analysis of a large amount of data referring to peak flows recorded in about 12000 gauging stations located in different geographical areas of the earth. The analysis shows that the usual goodness of fit tests are in agreement with the proposed method for return periods comparable with the lengths of the historical series but do not provide reliable information for the higher return periods that are usually involved in flood protection problems. On the other hand, the application of the proposed procedure to the probability distributions that are currently used in flood frequency analysis provides useful information to select the most suitable ones for the formulation of regional models aimed at the estimation of peak discharges corresponding to high return periods (>100 years).I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
