Electricity suppliers face two sources of risk: uncertainty of spot prices and uncertainty of production costs. Uncertainty in selling the output is usually ‘‘solved” by signing forwards and the two sources of risk are dealt with separately. However, managing the integrated risk optimally is the direction we will suggest. We intend to analyse the problem a power producer is confronted to upon acting in a market where spot and forward agreements are available. Since forwards allow to sell production in advance at a given price but do not hedge against cost volatility, the total risk can be reduced by selling also in the spot market. The analysis is further detailed to encompass the spread option inherent in electricity production. We find a benchmark value for forwards to sign and the optimal spot/forward combinations. The analysis is carried out by accounting for market figures for input and output variables in the German market EEX.

Integrated Risk Management for an Electricity Producer

FALBO, Paolo Stefano;FELLETTI, Daniele;STEFANI, Silvana
2010-01-01

Abstract

Electricity suppliers face two sources of risk: uncertainty of spot prices and uncertainty of production costs. Uncertainty in selling the output is usually ‘‘solved” by signing forwards and the two sources of risk are dealt with separately. However, managing the integrated risk optimally is the direction we will suggest. We intend to analyse the problem a power producer is confronted to upon acting in a market where spot and forward agreements are available. Since forwards allow to sell production in advance at a given price but do not hedge against cost volatility, the total risk can be reduced by selling also in the spot market. The analysis is further detailed to encompass the spread option inherent in electricity production. We find a benchmark value for forwards to sign and the optimal spot/forward combinations. The analysis is carried out by accounting for market figures for input and output variables in the German market EEX.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11379/41286
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