Macroeconomic Shocks, Structural Change and Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Historical Data

We present empirical evidence on the forces driving real exchange rates in the long-run. Using data from the USA, UK and Italy across different exchange rate regimes, we find support for the hypothesis that productivity and fiscal shocks matter. However, in some cases fiscal shocks cause depreciations, likely triggered by the monetary accommodation of fiscal shocks. We also find that the traditional Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect of productivity on real exchange rates is reversed in some cases, which confirms the importance of the distributive sector in driving productivity gains.