Multi-dimensional modelling tools for the assessment of honey bee colony health, Productivity and Pollination services

Honey bees are fundamental for the provision of goods (e.g. honey, beebread, royal jelly etc.) and ecosystem services (e.g. pollination) considered important for the maintenance of biodiversity and food security. Furthermore, beekeeping activity generates employment and represents a major source of income in many rural areas. Honey bee health is highly influenced by environmental conditions, chemical and biological stressors, beekeepers’ management practices, socio-economic conditions and policies adopted for cropping and land use. The multiplicity of factors influencing honey bees and the beekeeping sector makes difficult to implement management strategies aimed at preserving honey bee health while guaranteeing productivity and economic return. There is the growing need to monitor honey bee health and to develop tools able to organize and make available data collected through National and European monitoring projects and initiatives. Furthermore, proper modelling tools are needed to analyze such complex data-sets and provide support for decision-making. We present a methodological framework based on Structural Equation Modelling for large data-sets analysis aimed at assessing honey bee health status and predicting honey bee services provision. Starting from a simulated dataset we developed (i) a Health Status Index (HSI) estimating the influence of abiotic, biotic drivers and beekeeping actions in relation to bee health and (ii) predictive models for the estimation of honey production and pollination services provision considering abiotic, biotic drivers and HSI. The results provided information on the relative importance of the main driving variables on honey bee colony health, honey production and provision of pollination services. The proposed methodology can be used for the holistic assessment of honey bee health and productivity and to support decisionmaking for relevant stakeholders (beekeepers, risk assessors, policy-makers etc.) at local, regional, national and European level.