A forecasting model for waste being disposed of in landfills

The purpose of this paper is to propose a model capable to provide, by the analysis of the historical series of municipal solid waste disposed of in landfills, sufficiently reliable forecast of the quantity of this type of waste being disposed of in landfills in the future. The forecasting model proposed draws from the consideration that a landfill facility could be placed only in an area satisfying specific requirements, for example with regard to geological, hygienic, landscape and urban matters. Since eligible areas are limited, a natural limit to the exploitation of dumping ground exists. The main assumption of this study is that the quantity of waste disposed of in landfills follows a trend that can be described with the mathematical model of the Logistic function. The values of the historical series describing the streams of municipal solid waste landfilled in Italy are used as input data. The proposed model allows to perform forecasts that could be useful to governments for the definition of environmental policies and for a timely and adequate planning of the waste management system.